Washington @ Atlanta

If there's a team that can get hot and beat you, it's Washington.  After Friday's blowout of the Sun by the Dream, I was hoping for good things, and it looks like I got them in the form of Tiffany Hayes pouring in 23 points.  (It didn't hurt that the Mystics were held to 18 points over two quarters.)

At some point in the fourth quarter - probably when we were up by 20 or so - I used my Bill James Wins Calculator which told me that we were 100 percent of the way to a win.  When Courtney Clements came out - and Ruth Riley soon after - that percentage climbed to 102 percent of the way.

Unfortunately, it looks like Clements is going to be a prototype 20-20-20 player - these are players that only appear when the team is up by 20, down by 20, or there is only 20 seconds left in the game.  I don't see her being around next year.  She's shooting 26.7 percent from the field, the kiss of death for a rookie.  Clements had a great pre-season but Senor Fred won't bring in her even when we're behind by 20 in the fourth quarter.  She's no longer making an impression.

Ruth Riley is the other puzzler, and the words "20-20-20 player" and "Ruth Riley" shouldn't even be in the same sentence.  In 34 minutes this season, she's attempted three shots and missed all of them.  (However, she has 8 personal fouls.)  It's time to let her be great on some other team.

What really worries me are the three games against Chicago.  We have three games against the Sky, but at least they're not back to backs. This gives us a chance to learn from our losses if we have any.   Here's how I see the rest of the season going.

Chicago:  we might go 1-2, since we have two away games
Connecticut:   we won't lose again against them: 1-0
Indiana:  playing them at home?  1-0
New York:  depends on how healthy the Libs are:  1-0 if they're not, 0-1 if they are - they will probably be healthy
Washington:  The Mystics will probably steal one from us:  1-1

Western teams:  We play Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Phoenix at home.  We should win one of those, but those are the kinds of teams that no visitor wants to see.  San Antonio away on the last game of the season, after two games on the road? That's a loss.  1-3.

Final record:  18-16, probably either second or third.  Anything above that is icing.  Senor Fred keeps his job and we make it to the Eastern Conference finals, minimum.


Back to Washington:  remember the 2013 WNBA Draft?  We gave up our #7 and #19 picks in that draft to the Mystics for Jasmine Thomas.  I'm looking ahead at who we're going to keep and who should go for the 2014 season.

McCoughtry, Lyttle, de Souza, and Hayes:  all keepers.  McCoughtry is starting to get into that area of restricted free agent/core player.  But I think she likes Senor Fred and likes Atlanta.  You never really know, though.

Thomas:  Sure, why not?  We wanted her, and now we got her.  Basically, Washington got Kia Vaughn and Quanitra Hollingsworth for her.  I don't know if we came out on top there, though.  But those #7 and #19 picks weren't going to do us any good anyway.

Bentley:  Keep her, too.

Herrington:  Yes, keep her, she's a defensive specialist and can't score but you've got to have her for that nebulous "leadership" thingie.  She deserves a nice long career with somebody.

Henry:  Coin flip.  She seems to have gone backwards this year.  Keep her if you can't get anyone better.

Willingham:  No.  3.5 ppg isn't going to keep you in the WNBA.  If it weren't for Sancho Lyttle being hurt, she'd have a lot less than 16 starts.

Clements, Riley:  No, and no.