On Swish Appeal, a good friend asks the question "How will UConn do in the AAC long-term?" It's such a good question that it deserves an expanded answer.
If things really don't change between now and x number of years down the line, Connecticut bumps into the select mortality problem. Select mortality is an actuarial science concept dealing with life insurance. There is something called a mortality table which is used to set rates for life insurance. However, when you underwrite life insurance, you're not going to sell any to a 40-year old with terminal Stage IV cancer. In general, the group of people to whom you sell life insurance is a select group, with mortality rates slightly better than the average American. This allows you to lower the prices a little bit, and to be competitive in the market, because the probability of a person in the select pool dying in the short term is less than that of the general population.
As a rule, however, after something called the select period, the pool you started out with starts to look more and more like the general population. After this period, the mortality of your starting group is no different from that of the average American. That period could be two years, three years, five years depending on how you underwrite, but after x amount of time you can no longer assume that your underwritten pool members are any healthier than Joe or Jane Six-Pack.
Thus, Connecticut. Connecticut is in the American conference, which I have as a mid-major conference. Will Connecticut be superior this year? Yes. But the forces of being in a mid-major conference - decreased access to money and media attention - will slowly wear Connecticut down and after some given select period, Connecticut will be no different from any good mid-major team. Good for maybe one or two wins in the big tournament, but going no farther.
Geno Auriemma is what, 59? He's good for probaby another decade, if he stays healthy. But you never know. Pat Summitt is only two years older than Geno, and health took her out of the picture at Tennessee. As you get older, your energy flags and health problems which were non-existent at 20 and nagging at 40 become serious at 60. Do you really think that Auriemma can fight being in a mid-major conference single handed? Connecticut won't have the cash for facilities or salaries that the power conferences have. The Huskies will start to fall behind on the athletic side, and if there's another Pat Summitt out there waiting in a power conference, then you can't even confirm that Auriemma can make the American Conference great single-handedly.
Of course, this is all if things stay the same. But they don't.
Zhou Enlai, first premier of the People's Republic of China, supposedly said about the impact of the French Revolution that "It is too soon to tell". That would be the right answer to give, it's too soon to tell.
A lot can happen "in the long term":
SCENARIO ONE
The American Conference is a very poachable conference. By "poachable", I mean that its membership can be picked off for future expansion.
Cincinnati: Could end up either in the ACC or Big 12 someday.
Central Florida: A longshot to ACC if Miami or Florida State leave, but would be behind South Florida.
Houston: Big 12 if Big 12 loses members.
Louisville: Already out the door to the ACC next season.
Memphis: Big 12 if Big 12 loses members.
Rutgers: Already out the door to the Big Ten next season.
South Florida: If either Miami or Florida State leaves the ACC, South Florida could be the replacement.
Southern Methodist: Future Big 12 option.
Temple: Longshot to the ACC, see below.
East Carolina (2014): Probably not going anywhere after they join the American. A great football team without a television market.
Tulane (2014): Really shaky, also glad to have a home somewhere.
Tulsa (2014): Ditto.
So as you can see, many current teams in the American could be snatched if either a) a power conference wants to expand someday, or b) a power conference gets poached by another power conference and the victim needs an emergency replacement.
But what about Connecticut? Connecticut brings ESPN. The problem is that
a) geographically, the team isn't a fit for the Pac-12 or the SEC.
b) the academics at Connecticut aren't good enough for a Big Ten team.
c) the Big Twelve probably doesn't want to expand that far.
The only real fit is the ACC. God knows Connecticut wants to be in the ACC; they'd jump ship in three seconds if given any sort of opportunity. But Boston College doesn't want them in the ACC - there's some bad blood between both schools.
If the ACC gets poached - or wishes to expand - the Huskies could team up with Temple and join the conference in a two-fer. Hey, stranger things have happened. Coming in with UConn would be the only way Temple could ever get into the ACC.
What does this mean for women's basketball if it happens? A lot. Being in the ACC would give Connecticut instant credibility and Geno can be on top of the mountain all he wants to be. On the other hand, if other teams EXCEPT Connecticut get poached and the conference has to replenish itself with the Sun Belt teams of the world, then expect the deceleration to happen sooner rather than later.
SCENARIO TWO
Connecticut gets better at football. Unfortunately, we don't really know if football is expected to be the driving engine of the Connecticut athletic universe. Basketball had that job previously, and I think that Connecticut has only had a D-I team for less than 20 years (and they ain't doing so hot this season).
But if Connecticut could somehow transform itself into a powerhouse - well, a lot of conferences will make a lot of exceptions for a great football team with an ESPN affiliation. A powerhouse football team would bring revenue, which means revenue for women's basketball.
Either that, or the entire conference (including Connecticut) gets better and somehow lifts itself to true automatic qualifier status. I don't see that happening with the current motley crew in the American.
So what are Connecticut's chances of being a Top Four Division I women's basketball team?
Short run: good
Long run: depends on football or conference realignment. And Connecticut shouldn't hang its laundry on either one of those. The chances are better than even that Connecticut will decline. That's just the way things go.
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